Theory of Dunning-Kruger
in the 1900s, psychologists dunning and kruger developed a theory bearing their names, which proved that behavioral or cognitive bias occurs when an individual overestimates their skills or knowledge compared to others.
this bias arises when a person exaggerates their abilities while failing to recognize and address their weaknesses. for example, someone might believe they are fi t to star in a romantic film, but the fi lm producers do not see them as suitable.
another example is a student who does not study diligently and receives low grades. before the exam, they may have been confident that they understood everything and expected a high score. when they fail, they are shocked and may justify it by claiming the questions were unfair or that the teacher dislikes them, rather than acknowledging that their poor performance was the real reason.
in the dunning-kruger experiment, some participants scored low on tests of logic, grammar, and sense of humor. yet, they rated themselves as above average.
another example is a low-performing employee who constantly volunteers for tasks beyond their abilities. they insist their approach is the best and resist any criticism or additional training, convinced they understand the work better than their colleagues, despite their poor performance.
similarly, a manager with limited experience may refuse to consult specialists or experts, making major decisions with excessive confidence. this often leads to serious mistakes for the organization, which they then justify by blaming external factors rather than acknowledging their own inability to assess themselves accurately.
we also see individuals who have read only a few social media posts on complex topics such as vaccines or economics, yet speak with great confidence as if they were experts, even though they lack a fundamental understanding of the scientific method in these fields.
we often encounter people who offer definitive opinions on the constitution, electoral systems, or economic policies, yet when asked about the simplest details, they cannot provide an answer. despite this, they remain convinced that their position is correct and that everyone else is ignorant. some people consider themselves excellent drivers, so they speed, use their phones while driving, and break traffic laws, believing they can control the car without recognizing the real risks involved.
conversely, some individuals tend to underestimate themselves, even when they are experts. for example, a highly skilled researcher might find a subject “simple” because it comes easily to them and then assume it is equally easy for everyone else. in doing so, they undervalue their own expertise and overestimate others’ knowledge, diminishing their own achievements.
these examples illustrate the essence of the dunning-kruger effect.
an ignorant person is unaware of their own ignorance because the skills required to understand a subject are the same skills needed to recognize their lack of knowledge.
interestingly, the dunning-kruger theory was awarded the “nobel prize for ironic stupidity,” also known as the “darwin prizes,” an unofficial award organized by the humorous journal “annals of improbable research”. the award aims to highlight studies that are bizarre, trivial, or counterintuitive.
